The story of Bitcoin is filled with tales of astronomical gains, but also with profound stories of missed opportunities. Many early adopters and evangelists discovered Bitcoin in its infancy, preached its potential, yet ultimately failed to hold onto their coins. Their journeys reveal a critical lesson in cryptocurrency investing: knowing about an asset is one thing; having the conviction to hold it through extreme volatility is another.
This article explores the psychological and market forces that caused some of Bitcoin's earliest proponents to sell too early, doubt their beliefs, or simply walk away. Understanding these stories can provide valuable insights for today’s investors navigating the crypto landscape.
The Early Evangelist Who Turned Critic
In 2010, Duān Hóngbīn, a financial columnist known as "Lǎo Duān," first encountered Bitcoin through Google Reader. He was immediately captivated by this new digital currency created by geeks, viewing it as a powerful tool for financial disruption.
By July 2011, he was already writing articles advocating for Bitcoin, such as "What Thing Can Appreciate 3000 Times in a Year?". His core argument was simple: Bitcoin's value was derived from market trust and its limited, transparent supply capped at 21 million coins. He famously advised everyone to buy at least one Bitcoin, arguing that even if it became worthless, the loss was only equivalent to a meal, but if adoption grew, owning just one could make you wealthy.
That same year, he co-founded the influential Chinese Bitcoin community "Babite" (8btc) alongside other pioneers like Jihan Wu (later founder of Bitmain), helping to spread Bitcoin knowledge throughout China.
In July 2012, with Bitcoin's first halving event approaching, Duān took his conviction a step further by launching "Lǎo Duān Bitcoin Fund No. 1," one of China's first Bitcoin funds. With a starting capital of 100,000 RMB (about $16,000 at the time), he promised to personally cover all losses if Bitcoin failed.
The Pressure of Success and the Decision to Sell
The fund performed spectacularly. Driven by black swan events like the 2013 Cypriot financial crisis—where citizens rushed to buy Bitcoin to protect their wealth from government seizure—the price soared from $30 to $265 in months. Duān's fund saw gains of over 10x in just eight months.
Paradoxically, this rapid success created immense psychological pressure. As the净值 (net value) hit new highs daily, his investors grew anxious, constantly calling him to "sell and take profits." Succumbing to this pressure and his own growing skepticism that the rally was unsustainable, Duān liquidated the entire fund in April 2013. He declared that Bitcoin's growth depended on a constant influx of new buyers, comparing it to a bubble waiting to pop, and vowed never to buy Bitcoin again.
The Turn to Criticism and the Final Irony
Five months after his sale, Bitcoin's price surged again. Having "missed out," Duān underwent a dramatic shift from evangelist to critic. In a pivotal November 2013 article, he compared Bitcoin to the character "No-Face" from Spirited Away, who tempts others with gold. He now labeled Bitcoin a global Ponzi scheme, where early entrants profit at the expense of latecomers, and declared it a massive bubble.
He left the Bitcoin world, promoting altcoins instead and fading from the crypto scene. In a final twist of irony, he revealed in 2021 that while he once held a four-figure amount of Bitcoin (worth billions today), he had sold most for几十倍 (dozens of times) gains. The remaining three-figure "crumbs" were stored on the Mt. Gox exchange, which famously went bankrupt in 2014 after a hack. The early evangelist became a creditor in the long-running Mt. Gox bankruptcy proceedings, waiting to recover what was lost.
His story serves as a stark reminder that holding through volatility requires immense conviction. As one industry observer noted, his biggest mistake wasn't just selling his coins, but abandoning his influential position within the community.
The Zhihu Girl Who Missed the Advice
In December 2011, a college student using the name "Bamboo" asked a question on Zhihu, China's Quora-equivalent: "I'm a junior with 6,000 RMB. Any good suggestions for理财投资 (wealth management investment)?"
That same day, a user named "blockchain" replied with what would become one of the most famous pieces of investment advice in crypto history: "Buy Bitcoin. Save the wallet file. Then forget you ever had 6,000 RMB. Take a look again in five years." The respondent was长铗 (Chang Jia), co-founder of Babite and another early Bitcoin evangelist.
Had she followed this advice, her 6,000 RMB would have purchased over 300 BTC. At Bitcoin's current value, that would be worth over $16 million.
Why She Didn't Invest
She did not buy any Bitcoin. In the spring of 2012, she used her scholarship money to travel with friends for a week. For years afterward, every time Bitcoin's price surged, a wave of commentators would flock to the post to remind her of the fortune she had "missed."
In a 2018 interview, she stated she still had not bought any Bitcoin. While she admitted to moments of regret, she believed her choice was inevitable, a product of her personality and circumstances at the time. "If I were still that same me, I think I would make the same choice as I did seven years ago," she said. She has made peace with her decision, embodying the idea that "once you make a choice, don't regret it."
Her story is not one of failure, but of perspective. For every life-changing piece of advice acted upon, there are thousands ignored. She never truly "missed" Bitcoin because she never seriously researched or committed to it; it was just one of countless pieces of information she received.
Beyond Regret: Understanding "Missing Out"
The narratives of Lǎo Duān and the Zhihu girl highlight a universal experience in investing: the fear of missing out (FOMO). However, true "missing out" is often mischaracterized.
A popular financial blogger on Weibo, "ETF改变世界 (ETF Changes the World)," offered a crucial insight: Many people confuse merely hearing information with being able to act on it successfully. You might remember the one piece of advice that worked, like Bitcoin or茅台 (Moutai stock), but forget the countless others that failed. This is a form of survivorship bias.
What truly constitutes "missing out"? It's when you dedicate significant time to research, commit substantial capital, and still fail to profit. That information entered your consciousness, you engaged with it deeply, and it still didn't work out. Merely hearing a tip is not enough. Without deep understanding and conviction, you were never truly positioned to succeed in the first place.
As the philosopher Luo Xiang said, "A person's greatest pain is being unable to cross the chasm between knowing and doing." Investing perfectly embodies this struggle. 👉 Explore strategies to build conviction in your investments
Frequently Asked Questions
Why do even experts like Lǎo Duān sell their Bitcoin early?
Even experts are susceptible to human emotion and market pressure. Rapid price increases can create anxiety and fear of a crash, leading to a desire to secure profits. Furthermore, constant scrutiny from investors can pressure fund managers into making premature decisions, causing them to exit positions during strong rallies instead of holding for the long term.
Is it too late to invest in Bitcoin today?
While the price is significantly higher than in 2011, many analysts believe Bitcoin is still in its early adoption phase. Its fixed supply and growing acceptance as a store of value and institutional asset suggest potential for long-term growth. The key is to conduct thorough research, understand the risks of volatility, and only invest what you can afford to hold for the long term.
How can I avoid selling my investments too early?
Developing a strong investment thesis is crucial. Understand why you are investing in an asset. Set clear long-term goals and avoid checking prices obsessively. Most importantly, never invest under pressure or with money you cannot afford to lose, as this will make you more likely to panic-sell during market downturns.
What is the main lesson from these stories?
The core lesson is that information alone is worthless without conviction and research. True investing requires moving beyond hearing tips to deeply understanding an asset's value proposition. This knowledge builds the resilience needed to hold through market cycles, avoiding the mistakes of selling too early or not investing at all due to fear or uncertainty.
How can I manage the psychological pressure of investing?
Start with a clear plan. Define your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance before you begin. Diversify your portfolio to avoid overexposure to any single asset's volatility. Consider using dollar-cost averaging (regular investments of fixed amounts) to mitigate the stress of timing the market. Finally, focus on long-term trends rather than short-term price fluctuations.
Did the Zhihu girl really "miss out"?
Technically, yes, she missed significant financial gains. However, since she never seriously researched or committed to the investment, she was never truly in a position to capture those gains. Her story is a reminder that opportunities are only valuable if you have the preparedness and mindset to act on them. Regret is only meaningful for chances you were genuinely prepared to take.