Web3 is filled with metrics, but many fail to reveal what truly drives sustainable growth. Transaction counts, token prices, and sensational headlines often obscure the real story: user engagement quality and the potential for long-term, organic expansion. As the industry matures, relying on accurate, data-backed signals has become essential.
The good news is that actionable tools already exist. By combining key on-chain metrics into a single “health index” score, we can better understand user engagement depth and identify which blockchain ecosystems are positioned for enduring success. As we approach 2025, let’s explore what these metrics tell us about top chains like Solana, Ethereum, and emerging players.
Evaluating User Activity with Holistic Data
Building a sustainable on-chain ecosystem requires more than optimizing isolated actions. It demands context—a way to measure not just what users are doing, but how and why those actions matter. One effective method is categorizing user behavior into five core areas:
- Transaction Activity, including spot trades and smart contract interactions.
- Token Accumulation, reflecting medium-to-long-term holding and investment behavior.
- DeFi Engagement, such as staking, lending, and liquidity provisioning.
- NFT Activity, covering minting, trading, and utility-based interactions.
- Governance Participation, including voting and contributions in DAOs or protocols.
Rather than treating each metric equally, a Bayesian model can weight and combine them to produce a single composite score. This approach incorporates both prior expectations and real-time on-chain data, making the score more resistant to manipulation and more reflective of true user engagement.
Key Findings from 2024 Data
Applying this model to 2024’s data reveals some unexpected trends and patterns.
Solana attracted a significant number of high-quality users early in the year, particularly between February and mid-March. However, the quality of engagement declined afterward, even as SOL’s price and trading volume surged. This dip coincides with the memecoin trend, where repetitive actions like token swaps offer diminishing returns under a Bayesian model. Solana’s users appear concentrated in a narrow range of activities rather than contributing to multi-sector growth.
Ethereum, despite the approval of ETH ETFs, showed low and stable user engagement scores throughout the first half of 2024. This suggests that bullish market developments did not translate into broader ecosystem participation—such as increased DeFi usage or governance activity.
Axelar, though smaller in total value locked (TVL), demonstrated remarkably high user activity diversity relative to its size. Its users engaged in a wide array of on-chain behaviors, signaling a strong and participatory community—a detail easily missed when focusing solely on market cap or volume.
It’s important to note that these scores are best used to track changes over time on a single chain, not to make direct cross-chain comparisons. A score of “4” on Solana may reflect different behaviors than the same score on Axelar, due to differing baselines and ecosystem structures.
What to Expect in 2025
Looking ahead, each chain’s historical user quality data offers clues about its trajectory in the coming year.
Solana faces both challenges and opportunities. Its ability to retain its large user base and encourage broader on-chain interactions will be critical. If activity remains concentrated in speculative areas like memecoins, a downturn could follow once the trend cools. That said, early 2024 data indicates a core group of highly engaged users may sustain the network regardless.
Axelar’s challenge will be scaling its ecosystem without diluting user quality. This may involve forming strategic partnerships and improving user onboarding to make its dApps more accessible. Its highly engaged community provides a solid foundation for thoughtful growth.
Ethereum may continue to see mainnet activity consolidate around core functions like staking and governance, as more users migrate to Layer-2 solutions for everyday transactions. While essential to the ecosystem, this specialization may not be fully captured by scoring models that prioritize diverse on-chain actions.
This highlights an important consideration: scoring systems must align with a chain’s goals. A one-size-fits-all approach can overlook the unique value propositions of different networks. Tailored metrics are essential for accurate evaluation.
Defining the Future of On-Chain Growth
For too long, Web3 has prioritized superficial metrics over meaningful insights. In 2025, success will belong to those who adopt multivariate methods to measure—and improve—user quality.
On-chain intelligence platforms can integrate these advanced scoring systems to offer deeper insights to investors and builders alike. 👉 Explore more strategies for evaluating blockchain health
Similarly, project teams can use these scores to refine engagement strategies and foster real value creation. This shift from hype-driven growth to data-informed development will be crucial for realizing the full potential of Web3 in 2025 and beyond.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the most important on-chain metrics?
Key metrics include transaction volume, token accumulation patterns, DeFi participation, NFT activity, and governance involvement. Combining these into a weighted score offers a more complete picture of user engagement.
How does Solana’s user engagement compare to Ethereum’s?
Solana saw high initial engagement that later narrowed into more speculative activities. Ethereum’s engagement remained stable but did not broaden significantly despite positive market developments. Each chain has a unique user base and growth pattern.
Why is Axelar considered promising despite its smaller size?
Axelar’s users engage in a wide variety of on-chain actions relative to the network’s size, indicating strong community participation and diverse utility—a sign of health not always visible in traditional metrics like trading volume.
Can these metrics predict long-term success?
While no metric guarantees future performance, composite scores based on diverse behaviors provide better signals of sustainable growth than volume or price data alone.
How can projects improve their user quality scores?
Encouraging varied on-chain interactions—such as DeFi, governance, and utility NFT usage—can help. Rewarding diverse participation rather than repetitive actions is also beneficial.
Are these metrics applicable to all blockchains?
Most chains can benefit from this approach, but scoring models should be adapted to each network’s unique goals and user behaviors for the most accurate results.