The recent unpredictable shifts in the crypto market have led many to label this as a strange bull run. Widespread sentiment suggests that no one is making money, with numerous complaints calling this the most challenging Bitcoin bull market ever for turning a profit. This has caused even seasoned investors, who typically adopt a "when the market is good, everything looks promising; when it's bad, every project seems flawed" mindset, to doubt their strategies and question the entire value proposition of the crypto industry. Some are now convinced that the bull run is nearing its end…
Making Money in a Bull Market Was Always Hard
While this cycle feels unusual, those who have experienced multiple bull runs should know that volatility is par for the course. A previous analysis titled "Has Bitcoin’s Bull Market Logic Secretly Changed? Why Many Still Can’t Profit?" compared these cycles and concluded that it isn’t uniquely difficult to profit in this bull market—it has always been challenging. The reality is that most people who profited in past cycles did not jump in during the bull market; they were already positioned early. Those who enter sensing "profit opportunities" only after a bull run is underway often later realize that their capital ended up lining others' pockets.
The true winners are those who navigate through bull and bear markets unscathed. Over the years, many famous fortune-seekers have entered Bitcoin and crypto, only to meet dramatic downfalls—from Wall Street’s brilliant trader SBF to Do Kwon, dubbed the "Elon Musk of South Korea." The lessons from their failures are simple: aside of greed and disrespect for risk, the most critical error was a flawed "crypto价值观" (value perspective).
Many traders, epitomized by SBF, entered the crypto market not because they believed in the value of Bitcoin or digital assets, but because they thought it was full of "greater fools" to exploit. The strategy of buying low and dumping "worthless" Bitcoin onto naive investors became popular for a time. However, they failed to anticipate that in this highly unregulated market, the rule of "big fish eat small fish" always prevails. In any industry, those who don’t pursue its core values and instead enter with a "get-rich-quick" or exploitative mindset are doomed to fail. Even early success is often quickly reversed by market forces.
Perhaps many have forgotten the original purpose of Bitcoin and the crypto industry. A distorted value system ultimately leads to severe miscalculations.
What’s Wrong with "Value Projects"?
A defining feature of this bull run is that many so-called "value projects" heavily promoted by VCs, along with established crypto value projects like Ethereum, Layer2, metaverse, and DeFi platforms—which many expected to skyrocket—have not gained market traction. Instead, attention has shifted to meme coins and inscriptions, leading many to question what went wrong with these much-hyped "value projects."
But the problem isn’t that the market refuses to support value projects—it’s that the value projects themselves are flawed! Recently, we’ve observed Ethereum gas prices dropping as low as 1 gwei, and numerous Layer2, metaverse, and DeFi projects with minimal daily active users—or newly listed VC projects with unfinished products—carrying market caps in the hundreds of millions or even billions. With such weak fundamentals and inflated valuations, these projects reek of泡沫 (bubbles) and overvaluation. Naturally, investors are hesitant to buy in and instead prefer to speculate on low-market-cap meme coins, rejecting what feels like emotional manipulation (PUA).
Many focus on surface-level现象 (phenomena) while ignoring the underlying causes. It’s not that value projects lack value; their valuations aren’t solely based on active users. Many of these projects support billions in Total Value Locked (TVL), which represents significant capital that shouldn’t be overlooked.
However, a critical issue is the recent rise of "airdrop farming," which has not only spawned vast numbers of fake users but also made it difficult for new VC projects to achieve accurate valuations or focus on development. This has grown into an industry-wide problem in Web3, where fake traffic and users effectively hold projects hostage. Some organizations even exploit these toxic market conditions: creating seemingly stellar teams to attract VCs, designing "value projects" tailored for airdrop farmers, with no one genuinely caring about technology or solving real-world problems. It’s no surprise that such misguided VC projects often launch and immediately crash.
As a result, investors recognize that both new and old "value projects" have been contaminated. As the saying goes, "one bad apple spoils the barrel"—and when it’s a widespread issue, the best strategy becomes simply avoiding these traps altogether.
That said, we shouldn’t dismiss the many projects that stay true to crypto’s original values. Bitcoin introduced transparent, self-custodied assets that make personal property sacrosanct. Ethereum and Layer2 smart contract platforms provide a "trustless" environment for internet applications, pushing the world from "online" to "onchain." Despite current challenges, these foundational projects will likely endure through the market’s ongoing self-correction and purification.
The Bull Market Logic Has and Hasn’t Changed
The logic of bull markets has both changed and remained the same. Historically, most altcoins have served as receptacles for value溢出 (overflow) after Bitcoin’s price surges to a high range and struggles to advance further. Investors then perceive new narratives and low-market-cap altcoins as "value洼地" (value pockets), and driven by FOMO, divert capital into these smaller "reservoirs." Since these pools are shallow, even modest investments can yield multiples in returns, leading many to embrace this bull market logic.
This year, however, meme coins have exploded in popularity alongside various new and old altcoin concepts. The market realized that FOMO sentiment itself could be captured in a container—why bother navigating the minefield of altcoins riddled with pitfalls for retail investors when FOMO could be directly channeled into meme coins?
Thus, meme coins have intercepted capital that would otherwise have flowed into altcoins. The bull market logic has evolved, yet stayed the same: alongside the altcoin reservoirs, a new ring of meme coin reservoirs now captures Bitcoin’s value overflow.
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Has the Bull Run Ended? Most Are Losing Direction
Many are confused and conflicted about whether the bull run is over and if an altcoin season will still occur. But if we already know that for most people, "a bull market doesn’t guarantee profits, and a bear market doesn’t necessarily mean losses," why obsess over whether it’s bull or bear?
History offers a lesson. Look at gold’s performance over the past 100 years, and you’ll see that Bitcoin—digital gold—shares many chart similarities with the precious metal:
- When viewed over a long timeline, early price movements flatten into nearly a straight line, regardless of bull or bear phases.
- Prices fluctuate in cycles but maintain a long-term upward trajectory.
A simple, high-probability conclusion emerges: like gold, the best long-term strategy for Bitcoin is to accumulate on dips.
Gold’s Correlation with U.S. National Debt
The U.S., and much of the world, is locked into a cycle of printing money and creating massive debt with no turning back. The only way to manage escalating debt is to keep the printing presses running…
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is this Bitcoin bull run considered harder to profit from?
This cycle features heightened volatility, inflated valuations in many "value" projects, and a shift of capital toward meme coins, making traditional strategies less effective. Investors are also more cautious due to past scams and market manipulations.
Are all value projects in crypto now worthless?
Not at all. While many projects suffer from overvaluation and fake metrics, those with genuine utility, strong technology, and real-world use cases—like Bitcoin and Ethereum—remain fundamentally sound. The market is undergoing a natural correction phase.
What is the best strategy for long-term crypto investing?
The most reliable approach is to accumulate major assets like Bitcoin during market dips, diversify cautiously into promising altcoins with solid fundamentals, and avoid impulsive investments driven by FOMO. Long-term holding often outperforms short-term trading.
How do meme coins affect the broader crypto market?
Meme coins absorb speculative capital that might otherwise flow into altcoins, altering short-term market dynamics. However, they also attract new users and liquidity to crypto, potentially benefiting the entire ecosystem in the long run.
Should I be worried about the current market downturn?
Market corrections are normal in crypto. If you’ve invested in fundamentally strong assets, short-term downturns can be buying opportunities. Always assess your risk tolerance and avoid investing more than you can afford to lose.
Will Bitcoin continue to rise over the long term?
Historical data suggests that, despite volatility, Bitcoin has maintained a long-term upward trend similar to gold. Macroeconomic factors like inflation and debt growth may further support its value as a digital store of wealth.
Summary
Recent negative impacts from events like Mt. Gox repayments and government sell-offs have weighed on the market. However, the silver lining is that these looming threats—"Swords of Damocles" over crypto—are now dissipating. If we extend the timeline, the "bull" will always return. There’s no need for panic; instead, stay true to crypto’s original vision and patiently welcome the new era.