Bitcoin's price has repeatedly hit new highs, breaking through the $99,000 mark and invigorating the entire cryptocurrency market. Established altcoins are also gaining momentum, with Ripple's XRP delivering a particularly standout performance. Market data shows that on November 22, XRP broke past $1.40 and is currently trading around $1.42, marking a 24-hour increase of over 30%.
Unlike the frenzied meme coin market, these older altcoins are rising steadily rather than explosively. Their growth is less flashy but demonstrates consistent strength, gradually accumulating market attention.
Recent data indicates that weekly trading volume for altcoins has surged to over $300 billion for the first time since 2021. Among these, four major tokens—DOGE, XRP, SOL, and PEPE—account for 60% of the total trading volume.
Since the beginning of November, XRP has quietly climbed from around $0.50 to a peak of $1.435, a rise of 182.4%, marking its highest level in over three years. Similarly, ADA increased from $0.33 to $0.90, a monthly gain of nearly 170%, and XLM rose from $0.09 to $0.294, surging over 220%. These movements suggest that established altcoins are gradually shaking off their slump and reestablishing their position in the market with tangible performance.
If this trend continues, the recovery of older cryptocurrencies combined with the activity of trending tokens could lead to a broader "altcoin season" in the near future.
Shift in Regulatory Climate Sparks Momentum
XRP’s recent strong performance is driven by a combination of factors, with shifting market sentiment being the most immediate catalyst.
In July 2023, Ripple achieved a partial victory when a court ruled that XRP sales on digital trading platforms should not be considered securities. However, the court also determined that Ripple’s sales to institutional investors constituted unregistered securities. Additionally, the court ruled that the personal XRP sales of executives Brad Garlinghouse and Chris Larsen did not violate regulations. In August 2023, a final judgment required Ripple to pay a civil penalty of $125,035,100 and prohibited the company from further violating the Securities Act.
On October 3, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced it would appeal the decision, arguing that the district court’s ruling conflicted with decades of Supreme Court precedent and securities laws. However, with the recent U.S. election results, regulatory pressure may ease.
According to the SEC’s official website, Chairman Gary Gensler is set to step down on January 20, 2025. This has sparked market anticipation of a potential shift in regulatory approach. Legal actions against companies like Ripple could soften, settle, or even be withdrawn.
Gensler’s longstanding strict stance on the crypto industry, particularly toward Ripple, has kept XRP in a challenging position both legally and financially. Signs of a potential regulatory shift have given the market an opportunity to reassess XRP’s value.
Data from CoinGlass shows that XRP futures open interest (OI) has reached a record high of nearly $2.44 billion. This reflects unprecedented speculative enthusiasm in the market. Open interest, which represents the total number of active futures or options contracts that have not been settled, is often used as a key indicator of market activity and trading sentiment.
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Growing Institutional Interest and ETF Applications
In addition to a potentially friendlier regulatory environment, several institutions have begun applying for XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
On October 2, Bitwise confirmed it had filed an application for an XRP ETF, which was formally submitted on the Delaware government website. According to its S-1 registration filing with the SEC, Bitwise plans to use cold storage for the majority of the trust’s assets, transferring limited amounts to hot storage only as needed for efficient basket creation and redemption.
A week later, cryptocurrency investment firm Canary Capital submitted a registration application to the SEC for the "Canary XRP ETF." The fund aims to provide investors with exposure to XRP without direct ownership, using the CME CF Ripple Index as its pricing benchmark. Canary founder Steven McClurg stated that positive regulatory developments and growing investor demand for diversified crypto assets were key reasons behind the application.
On October 16, Grayscale Investments filed an application with the SEC to convert its diversified crypto fund, the Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC), into an ETF. As of September 30, the fund was primarily composed of Bitcoin (74.7%), followed by Ethereum (18.55%), with the remainder consisting of SOL, XRP, and AVAX. Grayscale had previously converted its Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts into ETFs.
On November 2, 21Shares submitted an application for an XRP ETF called the "21Shares Core XRP TRUST."
This wave of applications signals that XRP’s market position is steadily recovering, reflecting growing confidence in its future potential. As Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC shows signs of resolution, concerns about XRP’s regulatory status are easing. In the context of approved Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, the surge in XRP ETF applications is a significant step forward for the industry.
Is Altcoin Season on the Horizon?
The Crypto Market Cap Altcoin Season Index is a real-time indicator used to determine whether the market is currently dominated by altcoins. Based on the performance of the top 100 altcoins relative to Bitcoin over the past 90 days, it provides detailed charts and metrics to track market trends and altcoin dominance.
Currently, the index sits at 27 out of 100, indicating that Bitcoin still leads the market, and altcoins have not yet entered a period of strong dominance. However, the trend over the past seven days is noteworthy. The Altcoin Season Index has gradually climbed from a low on the 17th to a significant jump to 28 on the 21st, suggesting a revival of interest in altcoins.
Historical data shows that while the current index is well below the yearly high of 50, it has rebounded noticeably from the low of 13 seen earlier in the month. This upward movement may indicate that market capital is gradually rotating from major assets like Bitcoin into altcoins. With strong recent performances from established tokens like XRP and ADA, this trend could strengthen further.
At the same time, the total market capitalization of altcoins is growing steadily. Although the pace isn’t yet sufficient to completely shift market dynamics, the gradual stabilization and slight upward movement reflect subtle changes in market sentiment. Investors are beginning to reassess the value of altcoins and gradually shifting attention toward these assets.
If this trend continues and remains stable over the coming weeks, a true altcoin season may indeed be on the horizon.
That said, meme coins—driven by high speculation and social media trends—continue to hold a significant position in the market, making them hard to displace in the short term.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "altcoin season" mean?
Altcoin season refers to a period in the cryptocurrency market when alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) significantly outperform Bitcoin in terms of price gains and trading volume. It often indicates a surge in investor interest toward smaller and established digital assets.
Why is XRP rising so significantly?
XRP’s recent surge can be attributed to a combination of factors, including potential regulatory clarity, growing institutional interest through ETF applications, and overall positive sentiment in the crypto market.
How can investors track altcoin momentum?
Tools like the Crypto Market Cap Altcoin Season Index provide insights into whether altcoins are gaining dominance relative to Bitcoin. Additionally, monitoring trading volumes, open interest, and news related to regulatory developments can help gauge market trends.
Are meme coins still a major factor?
Yes, meme coins remain influential due to their highly speculative nature and strong community-driven hype. However, established altcoins like XRP, ADA, and XLM are gaining traction based on utility and institutional adoption.
What risks should investors consider?
Investors should remain cautious of volatility, regulatory changes, and market sentiment shifts. Diversification and thorough research are essential when investing in cryptocurrencies.
Will ETF approvals impact XRP’s price?
The approval of XRP ETFs would likely increase institutional accessibility and demand, potentially driving further price appreciation. However, market reactions can be unpredictable, and investors should monitor regulatory updates.