Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant price decline, dropping to $0.13—its lowest level since October 2024. This downturn occurred amid large-scale sell-offs by major investors and broader market weakness. Over a 48-hour period, whale entities sold approximately 1.32 billion DOGE, valued at around $190 million, raising concerns among traders and investors about further downside risk.
These large holders, often referred to as whales, control nearly 47% of Dogecoin’s circulating supply, amounting to roughly 70.5 billion tokens. Their substantial influence often dictates short-term price movements. The recent selling pressure has outpaced market demand, creating a challenging environment for DOGE to stabilize.
Understanding Whale Influence on DOGE
Whales—defined as wallets holding one million or more DOGE—play a critical role in price discovery and market sentiment. Their recent divestment has introduced heightened volatility and sparked fears of an extended downtrend.
When large holders sell significant portions of their holdings, it often triggers a cascade effect. Retail investors may follow suit, accelerating price declines and leading to increased liquidations. In Dogecoin’s case, this has pushed the price back to November 2024 support levels near $0.15.
If this support fails to hold, analysts suggest DOGE could test lower price zones around $0.10 or even $0.06. For a sustained recovery, DOGE would need to reclaim key technical levels, such as the 200-day Daily Moving Average, situated above $0.25.
The Emergence of Dogecoin ETPs and ETFs
In a contrasting development, the digital asset firm 21Shares launched a Dogecoin Exchange Traded Product (ETP) on the SIX Swiss Exchange under the ticker DOGE. This product allows both institutional and retail investors to gain exposure to Dogecoin through a regulated, physically backed structure.
More significantly, 21Shares—along with Bitwise and Grayscale—has filed for a spot Dogecoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). These filings mark a pivotal step toward mainstream financial product adoption for meme cryptocurrencies.
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Market Sentiment and Approval Probabilities
Prediction markets currently assign a 64% probability that a DOGE ETF will gain approval by the end of 2025. This is a decline from the 75% odds estimated earlier in the year by Bloomberg analysts, reflecting heightened regulatory uncertainty.
Approval of a spot ETF could serve as a major catalyst for Dogecoin, potentially driving institutional demand and improving market structure. Such a product would offer investors a secure and compliant avenue to invest in DOGE, possibly stabilizing its price over the long term.
Miner Behavior and Market Indicators
Despite negative price action, Dogecoin miners have exhibited accumulation behavior since March. Their collective holdings increased from 831 million to 907 million DOGE, indicating a cautiously optimistic outlook from within the network.
However, social volume and active address metrics remain subdued, suggesting limited retail interest. This lack of engagement may prolong the current consolidation phase until broader market sentiment improves.
Large wallet holders—those controlling over one billion DOGE—have continued selling since December, showing no signs of changing strategy. Their persistent distribution remains a headwind for any meaningful price recovery.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Dogecoin has given up all gains achieved during the U.S. election cycle and returned to a critical support region. The $0.15 level previously served as a base in March—a break below could open the door to further declines.
On the higher timeframes, DOGE must reclaim the $0.25 zone to shift medium-term momentum in favor of the bulls. Until then, the market structure remains bearish, with selling pressure outweighing buying interest.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is causing the current selling pressure on Dogecoin?
Large investors, known as whales, have sold over 1.32 billion DOGE in a short period. This has created an oversupply in the market, outpacing current demand and driving the price down.
How likely is a Dogecoin ETF to be approved?
Prediction markets currently indicate a 64% chance of approval by the end of 2025. This probability may change based on regulatory developments and market conditions.
Can miner accumulation help support the DOGE price?
While miners have increased their holdings, their influence is limited compared to whale activity. Sustained accumulation may provide some support, but it is unlikely to reverse the trend alone.
What price levels are critical for DOGE in the short term?
The $0.15 zone is crucial support. If broken, DOGE could decline toward $0.10 or lower. Resistance is found near the 200-day moving average around $0.25.
How could an ETF approval affect Dogecoin’s price?
An approved ETF would likely attract institutional capital and improve market confidence, potentially serving as a catalyst for a sustained upward trend.
Where can investors gain regulated exposure to Dogecoin?
Investors can access Dogecoin through the 21Shares ETP on the SIX Swiss Exchange. A U.S. ETF would offer another regulated option if approved.
Conclusion
Dogecoin faces a challenging mix of whale-driven selling and cautious retail sentiment. While the potential for a spot ETF offers a hopeful narrative, approval is not guaranteed and may not materialize until late 2025.
In the short term, traders should monitor the $0.15 support level and whale wallet activity for clues about future direction. A break below could lead to further declines, while holding may set the stage for consolidation.
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For now, the market awaits clearer signals—either from regulatory bodies or from a shift in investor behavior. Until then, caution and risk management remain advised for those exposed to DOGE’s volatility.