According to a key Bitcoin market cycle tool with a ten-year track record, the current price environment remains "neutral," suggesting significant upside potential remains before the bull market reaches its peak.
Key Insights
- The Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) from CryptoQuant suggests the bull run still has considerable room to grow.
- Despite BTC/USD achieving new all-time highs, the market is at a "defining point," with the indicator reading "neutral."
- Bitcoin's Puell Multiple remains at relatively low levels, which is atypical behavior for the most overheated phases of a bull market.
Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised for a "new phase of upward movement," according to a price tool with a decade-long history that remains bullish. Fresh data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant shows its proprietary IBCI tool is calling for the bull run to continue.
Bitcoin Price at a "Defining Point"
The latest IBCI reading strongly suggests that the current Bitcoin bull market is far from over.
The IBCI synthesizes several classic on-chain metrics, including the Puell Multiple and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. It currently remains well below the zones that have traditionally corresponded with bull market tops.
"Recently updated Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI) data shows the market is at a defining point," wrote CryptoQuant contributor Gaah in a Tuesday "Quicktake" blog post.
Gaah described the data as a signal for the "continuation" of the bull run that began in early 2023.
"During the strong rally between late 2023 and Q1 2024—when the IBCI reached the distribution zone (above 75%)—the indicator experienced a correction as the BTC price declined," the post continued. "Currently, the IBCI has stabilized in the 50% range, indicating a neutral point in the market cycle."
Since BTC/USD broke above its previous all-time high of $73,800 in October 2024, the IBCI has held at this 50% level. Unlike the environment of frantic profit-taking that characterized that event and the remainder of the year, Gaah noted that investor behavior is now much calmer, potentially opening the door for new highs.
"Historically, balance zones like this appear between two decisive phases: the end of a realized move and the beginning of a new upward phase," he explained. "The lack of extreme euphoria and the gradual recovery of Bitcoin's price suggests the market is in a transition phase—not an exhaustion phase."
Historical data shows the IBCI has presented similar patterns relative to long-term BTC price peaks.
Anomalous Behavior at New Bitcoin Highs
As consistently reported, a growing number of market metrics suggest Bitcoin is destined to re-enter a price discovery phase. This includes a list of 30 "bull market top" indicators, none of which are flashing red despite BTC/USD reaching $112,000.
Price targets for the remainder of the bull run include $200,000 and beyond.
In a separate recent analysis focusing on the Puell Multiple, Gaah highlighted an unusual divergence between price and miner revenue.
"Historically, when the Puell Multiple is below 1.0, we associate it with accumulation or undervalued periods, where the Bitcoin price has not yet reflected the full potential of long-term growth," he wrote. The metric currently sits at 1.27. "It is rare to see the indicator at such low levels at new all-time highs, potentially indicating the market has not yet reached full euphoria. There is room for both miner revenue and positive market sentiment to expand."
👉 Explore advanced on-chain analysis tools
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator (IBCI)?
The IBCI is a proprietary tool developed by CryptoQuant that combines several key on-chain metrics, such as the Puell Multiple and MVRV ratio, into a single composite indicator. It is designed to identify where Bitcoin is in its typical market cycle, helping to signal potential accumulation, distribution, or neutral phases.
What does a "neutral" reading mean for Bitcoin's price?
A "neutral" reading on the IBCI suggests that the market is neither extremely overbought nor oversold. It indicates a balanced or transition phase, often occurring between major price movements. Historically, such periods have preceded new upward trends, implying that the current price level may not be the cycle's peak.
How reliable is the Puell Multiple indicator?
The Puell Multiple is a highly reliable on-chain metric that measures the ratio of daily coin issuance value (in USD) to the 365-day moving average of that value. It effectively gauges miner selling pressure and market profitability. Low values often indicate undervaluation and accumulation phases, while high values can signal market tops.
Why is the current market considered anomalous?
The market is considered anomalous because Bitcoin has reached new all-time highs while key metrics like the Puell Multiple remain at relatively low levels. Typically, such highs are accompanied by extreme euphoria and elevated metric readings. The current moderation suggests this cycle may be unfolding differently, with potential for further growth.
What are the price targets for this bull run?
While predictions vary, several analysts and models suggest price targets ranging from $150,000 to $200,000 and beyond for the current bull cycle. These forecasts are based on historical patterns, on-chain data, and the evolving macroeconomic environment favorable for scarce digital assets.
How can investors use this information?
Investors can use these on-chain indicators as part of a broader due diligence process to assess market conditions. A "neutral" reading suggests it may not be time to exit positions but to maintain a strategic outlook or consider accumulation. Always combine on-chain data with other forms of technical and fundamental analysis.