In the cryptocurrency market, bold predictions aren't just talk—they are backed by real money, often through lottery-style options trades that offer the potential for outsized returns at a relatively low cost.
As of this writing, one of the most eye-catching instruments is the Bitcoin call option with a $300,000 strike price expiring on June 26, listed on Deribit. Theoretically, this call option represents a bet that the spot price of BTC will triple to exceed $300,000 by the end of the first half of the year.
At the time of reporting, there were over 5,000 active contracts for the June $300K call option, representing a total notional open interest of $484 million. This makes it the second most popular options bet for June expiries, trailing only the $110K call option.
Deribit is the world’s leading crypto options exchange, accounting for more than 75% of global options activity. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 BTC. Quarterly expiries, like the one on June 26, drive market activity and increased volatility, as traders use these deadlines to hedge positions, lock in gains, or speculate on the next price moves.
“Perhaps people just like buying lottery tickets. As shown by the call skew, there are always those looking for a hedge against hyperinflation,” said Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at crypto market maker GSR, explaining the high open interest in so-called out-of-the-money (OTM) $300K call options.
Deep OTM call options, also known as “wings,” require a significant move in the price of the underlying asset to become profitable. As a result, they are significantly cheaper compared to options near or below the asset’s current market price. However, if the market rallies, the payoff can be enormous—making them similar to buying a lottery ticket with long odds but a potentially life-changing payout.
Deribit’s Bitcoin options market has seen similar liquidity in previous bull cycles, but these types of bets have rarely gained enough traction to become the second most popular choice for a quarterly expiry.
Data shows that the June 26 expiry is the largest of all settlements this year, and the $300K call option ranks second in total open interest value among June expiry options.
Simranjeet Singh, a trader at GSR, elaborated on the high notional open interest in the $300K call: “I suspect this is mainly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings, betting on the broader U.S. regulatory narrative turning supportive for crypto, along with the ‘winged possibility’ (no pun intended) of Bitcoin strategic reserves being mentioned early in the administration.”
Last Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis stated in a speech that she was “particularly thrilled that President Trump endorsed her Bitcoin legislation.”
“The Bitcoin legislation is the only solution to our nation’s $36 trillion debt. I am grateful for a forward-thinking president who not only recognizes this but acts on it,” Lummis said on X.
Who Is Selling the $300K Call Options?
According to the Director of Derivatives at Amberdata, significant selling was observed in April in the $300K call options expiring June 26. This is consistent with a covered call strategy, which traders use to generate additional yield on top of spot market holdings.
“I believe the selling volume on April 23 came from traders generating income on long-term positions,” Magadini told CoinDesk. “Each option was sold for around $60, with an implied volatility of 100%.”
Selling higher strike OTM call options and collecting premiums while holding long positions in the spot market is a popular yield-generation strategy in both crypto and traditional markets.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is a Bitcoin call option?
A Bitcoin call option is a financial contract that gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase Bitcoin at a predetermined price (the strike price) on or before a specific expiration date. It is a bullish bet that allows for leveraged exposure with limited risk.
Why are deep out-of-the-money (OTM) options called “lottery tickets”?
Deep OTM options are very cheap but require a huge price move to become profitable. This low-cost, high-reward potential resembles a lottery ticket: you risk very little for a small chance of an extremely large payoff.
What is a covered call strategy?
A covered call involves holding a long position in an asset (like Bitcoin) and simultaneously selling call options on that same asset. This generates premium income, but it caps the upside profit if the asset’s price rises sharply beyond the strike price.
How does open interest affect the options market?
Open interest represents the total number of outstanding option contracts. High open interest indicates strong market interest and liquidity, which can lead to increased trading activity and potential volatility around expiration dates.
What role do quarterly expiries play?
Quarterly expiries (like those in March, June, September, December) often see heightened trading volume and volatility. They serve as key dates for traders to adjust or close positions, hedge risk, or make directional bets, influencing short-term market momentum.
Is buying a $300K strike call a good investment?
It is a highly speculative trade. While the potential return is enormous if Bitcoin hits $300,000 by late June, the probability is considered very low. It should only be considered with capital you are prepared to lose entirely.