Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing a technical breakout that could propel its price toward $100,000 by May. Recent on-chain data reveals that despite macroeconomic headwinds and short-term downside risks, major Bitcoin holders are demonstrating strong bullish sentiment.
Accelerated Bitcoin Accumulation by Large Holders
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin whales and large entities are absorbing BTC at a record pace—exceeding 300% of the annual issuance rate. At the same time, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges are declining at an unprecedented rate.
Notably, the annualized exchange outflow rate has dropped below -200%, signaling a growing preference among investors for self-custody and long-term holding strategies.
Simultaneously, holders controlling between 100 to over 1,000 BTC are accumulating Bitcoin at more than three times the rate of new supply. This marks the fastest pace of whale and shark accumulation in Bitcoin’s history.
This trend highlights a structural shift in the market, largely influenced by increasing institutional adoption following the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs last year. The result is a reduced available supply on exchanges and strengthened long-term confidence among high-volume investors.
Broad-Based Buying Across Holder Groups
Data from Glassnode indicates that whales holding more than 10,000 BTC remain in a strong accumulation phase, with a Trend Accumulation Score of around 0.7 as of April 18.
This metric measures the behavior of various holder groups, ranging from distribution (0) to accumulation (1). A score near 0.7 reflects strong confidence among the largest Bitcoin entities.
In contrast, smaller cohorts that had been distributing since the beginning of the year are showing signs of slowing their selling. Groups holding 10–100 BTC and 1–10 BTC have seen their scores return to neutral territory, around 0.5.
Even the smallest cohort—those holding less than 1 BTC, largely consisting of retail participants—are no longer in significant distribution mode. This suggests a market-wide return to accumulation behavior.
On-chain analyst Mignolet notes that this whale activity resembles patterns seen before the 2020 Bitcoin bull run.
Technical Breakout Suggests $100,000 Target
Bitcoin has broken out of a multi-month descending wedge pattern, signaling a potential bullish reversal that could push the price to $100,000 by May.
A descending wedge forms when price action converges between two descending trendlines and is typically resolved with an upward breakout. Traders often calculate the price target by measuring the wedge’s height and adding it to the breakout point.
Applying this rule to Bitcoin’s current chart suggests a target above $101,570.
However, Bitcoin is currently testing its 50-day (red wave) and 200-day (blue wave) exponential moving averages (EMAs) near $65,300 as resistance. A rejection from these levels could lead to a retracement toward the upper trendline of the wedge, around $60,000.
Market analyst Scott Melker commented, “The 200-day moving average remains as resistance overhead, and the $68,804 level is still a key obstacle for shifting market structure and printing a higher high.” He added, “This is encouraging, but not yet convincing. Bulls need to show more strength.”
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Frequently Asked Questions
What does it mean that whales are absorbing 300% of new Bitcoin supply?
It means that large holders are buying Bitcoin at three times the rate of new coins created through mining. This indicates strong demand from high-volume investors and often reduces selling pressure in the market.
Why are exchange outflows significant for Bitcoin’s price?
Exchange outflows suggest that investors are moving Bitcoin to private wallets for long-term storage rather than active trading. This reduces the immediate supply available for sale, which can support higher prices.
What is a descending wedge pattern?
A descending wedge is a bullish chart pattern formed by two converging descending trendlines. A breakout above the upper trendline often leads to a significant upward price movement.
How reliable are technical price targets like $100,000?
Technical targets are based on historical patterns and mathematical projections. While they provide a useful framework, they should be considered alongside on-chain data, market sentiment, and macroeconomic factors.
What are the main resistance levels Bitcoin needs to break?
Key resistance levels include the 50-day and 200-day EMAs near $65,300 and the recent high around $68,800. A sustained break above these could open the path toward $70,000 and higher.
Is now a good time to invest in Bitcoin?
Market conditions appear favorable with strong accumulation by large holders and a technical breakout. However, investors should always conduct their own research and consider their risk tolerance.